The applicable sports metaphor is not "game changer," but "running through the tape." If peace was declared tomorrow, Ukraine would still need a new tank fleet. Give up any other idea of the outcome here: no instant state of peace will stand either party down. Poland is building the support infrastructure for Abrams in their own fleet as well as for Ukraine. In the meantime, Leopard is a simple, diesel-powered tank designed for a conscript crew to learn and maintain and fight in just a matter of weeks.
We'd be better off to give up any notions that outside powers can make Ukraine or Russia stop fighting. Only Ukraine will decide whether Ukraine stops fighting. Only Russia will decide whether Russia stops fighting. No amount of jeremiads or hectoring will make either combatant give up against their will. The only question left is whether Russia can deploy as many Armatas against Ukraine in 2025 as the US can provide Abrams to Ukraine, and the answer is probably not. "Run through the tape."
The applicable sports metaphor is not "game changer," but "running through the tape." If peace was declared tomorrow, Ukraine would still need a new tank fleet. Give up any other idea of the outcome here: no instant state of peace will stand either party down. Poland is building the support infrastructure for Abrams in their own fleet as well as for Ukraine. In the meantime, Leopard is a simple, diesel-powered tank designed for a conscript crew to learn and maintain and fight in just a matter of weeks.
We'd be better off to give up any notions that outside powers can make Ukraine or Russia stop fighting. Only Ukraine will decide whether Ukraine stops fighting. Only Russia will decide whether Russia stops fighting. No amount of jeremiads or hectoring will make either combatant give up against their will. The only question left is whether Russia can deploy as many Armatas against Ukraine in 2025 as the US can provide Abrams to Ukraine, and the answer is probably not. "Run through the tape."