Middle East in Crisis – 8
France Seeks a Role in Iran Situation
On 1 July did you hear the crunching sound of ice cracking on the frozen lake of Russia-France ties? President Vladimir Putin’s decision to take a phone call on that day from his French counterpart Emmanuel Macron, for the first time since September 2022, signifies that the western narrative to ‘erase’ Russia in the proxy war in Ukraine has comprehensively unravelled.
That narrative, aimed at casting an enemy image of Russia, was pivoted on a bizarre thought process that Kremlin intended to invade Europe, but now it serves no purpose as the principal protagonists of the proxy war in the collective west—US, UK, France and Germany—realise that the war has been irretrievably lost and it is about time to move on.
The first sign of it appeared at the recent G-7, NATO summits last month. Following up on the tiding from the NATO Summit, Putin has since green lighted a Russian-American Summit in the near future, something that President Trump has been seeking. (See ‘Trump nudges Europe to ease off on Russia,” Deccan Herald, 1 June 2025.)
Now, it is Macron’s turn to synchronise his watch. There are rumours that German Chancellor may follow Macron’s footfalls very soon.
Evidently, Putin and Macron see the need to re-engage to bring Russian-French ties to a new normalcy. There is growing realisation that Russia’s demand to negotiate a security architecture for Europe, which was one of the core demands of the Kremlin while opting for the special military operations in Ukraine in February 2022, is showing signs of slowly, steadily gaining traction with Trump. He is unilaterally begun relaxing some financial sanctions on Russia which would also mean that he is taking control of European Union’s reckless moves on Russia. May be this surmise is looking beyond the curve, but it is only logical.
From the Russian readout of the Putin-Macron conversation, it emerges that the discussion devolved upon two topics — the critical Middle East situation and the Ukraine war. The two-hour long discussion certainly went beyond an in-depth exchange.
The Russian readout adopts a positive note on the whole that apropos the Middle East situation at least, despite the past discord and acrimony, the two countries may find convergence in regard of the Iran situation in the wake of the US strike insofar as they “bore a particular responsibility for upholding peace and security” in West Asia as permanent members of the UN Security Council “as well as for preserving the global non-proliferation regime.”
Significantly, the two leaders “noted that respecting Tehran’s legitimate right to develop peaceful nuclear technology and continue fulfilling its obligations under the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons, which includes cooperating with the IAEA, was crucial.” This is a steady Russian position with which France seems to concur.
The conversation was timely because the E-3 [France, Britain and Germany] now have to notify to the UN Security Council if they intend to invoke the so-called ‘snapback mechanism’ to reimpose the sanctions regime on Iran [on the plea that Iran has violated the provisions of the JCOPA] as the 2015 accord itself is set to expire in October. Time is running out.
The peculiarity of the ‘snapback mechanism’ is that it is immune to veto by any permanent member (in this case, Russia or China.) Ironically, this unusual idea was the brainwave of the Russian negotiators as a guarantee to Europeans that Iran intended to observe in letter and spirit the JCPOA during the ten-year period ahead till October this year.
The US is no longer qualified to invoke the JCPOA and it is a tough call for E-3 in today’s circumstances as Iran may altogether quit the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty [NPT] if push comes to shove so that it is no longer answerable to the UN.
The wording of the Russian readout — “for preserving the global non-proliferation regime” — is an indication that Russia and France have an abiding interest in Iran continuing as an NPT member. The big question is, are we getting a glimpse of a possible solution to the problem based on some sort of flexibility on the part of the US to concede Iran’s right to enrich uranium?
Such a possibility cannot be ruled out although Israel won’t give up on its maximalist stance that Iran should not have any rights to enrich uranium, no matter the NPT.
The bottom line is that Russia and France have underscored the imperative of “settling the crisis around Iran’s nuclear programme and any other differences arising in the Middle East exclusively via political and diplomatic means.” Putin and Macron have an understanding to “maintain contact in order to coordinate their stances if necessary” in the current volatility where there are moving parts.
Interestingly, on the day before the conversation with Putin, Macron had a call with Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian where he expressed concern over Tehran’s decision to suspend cooperation with the International Atomic Energy Agency.
As regards the Ukraine war, Russian and French positions remain miles apart. That is only to be expected. Putin is unlikely to shift, as the wording of the readout emphatically states. Anyway, Russia counts on the US as its principal interlocutor . And the disclosure that the US arms supplies for Ukraine have virtually stopped is a powerful signal to Europeans to rethink on their own commitments.
Macron finds himself at a loose end, as never before in recent years. The Franco-German axis no longer works in the European Union. Macron has drawn close to the UK PM Keir Starmer but the latter himself is grappling with withering criticism within the Labour Party that his excessive involvement in Ukraine has been at the cost of neglect of domestic issues. Labour Party now trails behind Nigel Farage’s populist Reform UK in opinion polls.
At any rate, Starmer has given up on the crazy idea of a “coalition of the willing” to carry on with the Ukraine war even without the US. That leaves Macron in the lurch in the middle of nowhere, with Trump keeping him at arm’s length. On the sidelines of the G-7 Summit, Trump publicly ridiculed Macron. There are incipient signs that France is already beating the retreat on Ukraine war. Putin understands all this, but he didn’t show it.
Putin and Macron go back a long way. But they seem to have decided to forget that as recently as in March they were calling each other names.
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