Middle East in Crisis – 7
Trump Flip-Flops on Iran, Again. Why?
The US President Donald Trump’s latest Truth Social post yesterday on Iran nuclear issue reads as follows: “Tell phony Democrat Senator Chris Coons that I am not offering Iran ANYTHING, unlike Obama, who paid them $Billions under the stupid “road to a Nuclear Weapon JCPOA (which would now be expired!), nor am I even talking to them since we totally OBLITERATED their Nuclear Facilities.”
Trump’s post suggests that the Iran question threatens to moved to the centre court of American party politics. Trump is upset touched by Senator Coon’s criticism, who is a senior lawmaker in the Senate from Delaware (Joe Biden’s “eyes and years,” as New York Times once put it) for the past 15 years.
Interestingly, Senator Coons is an ordained elder with West Presbyterian Church, who continues to preach regularly at houses of worship across Delaware and, importantly, is committed to bipartisan engagement in politics aiming to bring Americans of all backgrounds, faiths, and political parties together through a celebration of spirituality and prayer. Coonshas an evangelical base, regularly participates in the weekly Senate Prayer Breakfast, and is one opposition politician who can assimilate a hefty slice of MAGA movement if it were to splinter over Trump’s abandonment of campaign pledge on farewell to arms.
Coonshas trenchantly criticised Trump’s handling of the Iran question. In doing so, he aligned with four other senior Democratic senators—Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-N.Y.), Senate Appropriations Ranking Member Patty Murray (D-Wash.), Senate Armed Services Ranking Member Jack Reed (D-R.I.), and Senate Intelligence Committee Vice Chairman Mark Warner (D-Va.)
They have issued a statement on the Iran question on 18 June which argued that: 1. The eruption of Israel-Iran conflict represented “a dangerous escalation that risks igniting a broader regional war” 2. Trump should “prioritise diplomacy and pursue a binding agreement that can prevent a nuclear-armed Iran. 3. Trump should not expand US engagement in the war, given the “lack of preparation, strategy, and clearly defined objectives, and the enormous risk to Americans and civilians in the region.” 4. Trump administration is yet to provide answers to fundamental questions, such as
“immediate answers” to seven questions they have raised apropos Intelligence Community’s current assessment of Iran’s nuclear program, its leaders’ intent, and its capabilities;
the objective of US military intervention in Iran, especially Trump’s call for “UNCONDITIONAL SURRENDER” by Iran;
the estimated scope and duration of any such US military campaign;
the risk to US forces across its bases in the region;
evacuation plans for US citizens; and, most important,
the constitutional or statutory authority that would underpin the military intervention.
On the last point, in a stinging rebuke, the five senators reminded Trump that “Congress is an equal partner in preserving and defending US national security around the world, and Congress has not provided authorisation for military action against Iran… The United States cannot sleepwalk into a third war in as many decades. Congress has a critical role to play in this moment.”
Trump is unused to checks and balances. What made Trump particularly furious would be that Sen. Coons also happens to be a member of the Senate Foreign Relations committee and a staunch supporter of Israel and a guest speaker at AIPAC events.
Coonsis an interesting politician who can take bold positions. Last year, for example, he opposed a resolution proposed by Senator Bernie Sanders that would have applied human rights norms to US assistance for Israel, while on the other hand, urging the Biden administration to recognise a “non-militarised” Palestinian state after the end of the Gaza war!
The bottom line is that a groundswell of opinion is building up in the US, reminiscent of the incipient undercurrents after President Kennedy’s assassination that eventually swept America as Lyndon Johnson accelerated the Vietnam War ultimately turning it into a tsunami that forced him to retire from politics.
In reality, Trump’s options are limited. He is insisting that the air strikes of June 22 “obliterated” Iran’s nuclear sites. That is to say, the Iranian bomb is no longer a compelling reality.
On the other hand, Israel is mighty upset that Iran has given it such a battering that its economy is in shambles and it cannot hope to taken on Iran directly in a foreseeable future. It expects Trump to do the heavy lifting, which, to my mind—and, perhaps, special envoy Steve Witkoff’s mind—Trump is loathe to do.
If Trump embarks on a war path regardless, he needs a mandate from the UN Security Council and the US Congress. But neither is likely forthcoming. That aside, if Iran inflicts serious damage to the US interests in a military confrontation, it can potentially turn into a hot button issue in the mid-term elections next year that could mean an ignominious end to MAGA movement and Trump’s legacy.
What is the alternative? I would go back to Trump’s default position and do ground work to negotiate the so-called Comprehensive Peace Agreement, which Witkoff had promised as recently as last week in his CNBC interview.
Trump should have known that Iran’s political rhetoric at the level of the Supreme Leader is mostly meant for the domestic audience of observant Muslims. Any Iran expert at the Quincy Institute for Responsible Statecraft could have compiled a list of past instances in such volatile moments in the US-Iran standoff during the past 47 years and someone in the White House could have prepare a bulky document and got Trump to glance through it.
Simply put, Trump had no conceivable reason to name calling Grand Ayatollah Ali Khamenei on the eve of the funeral ceremony for top military commanders and nuclear scientists martyred during Israel’s 12-day war against Iran, which he could not even attend due to security considerations.
What would Trump have done in a similar situation at the Cathedral Church of Saint Peter and Saint Paul in the City and Episcopal Diocese of Washington? A Fox News interview? A post on Truth Special?
Life moves on. Trump should return to a priori history and let Witkoff negotiate the agreement that he promised. Let things cool down meanwhile through the multiple back channels that are available.
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