European Elections
Three Countries
By now, many of the 370 million European voters, government officials, and political parties are gearing up for the next European election to be held between 6 and 9 June 2024.
European politicians—with the exception of the UK’s because of Brexit and Bregret—are competing for the 720 seats-strong EU parliament. The EU’s parliament is divided into roughly seven different political parties or “groups” as they are called:
The Progressives:
European United Left/Nordic Green Left (GUE/NGL) consists mainly of parties with socialist and communist backgrounds. It emerged from Sweden and Denmark. The GUE/NGL has Eurosceptic traits based on an anti-capitalist perspective.
The Centre-Progressives:
These are Europe’s social-democrats (S&D)—with a centre-progressive orientation fostering an inclusive European society based on equality, solidarity, social justice, improved living and better working conditions.
The Environmentalists:
The European alliance of green parties focuses on human rights and the environment as well as social justice.
The Christian Conservatives:
First, there is the European People’s Party (EPP) with a Christian-Democrat ideology. The EPP is the largest group. In 2021, Hungary’s right-wing populist—Viktor Orbán—quit the group after disagreements over the group’s ideological direction.
The Neoliberals:
The “Renew Europe” group of the European liberal-democratic Parties (ELDR) have French President Emmanuel Macron as its most prominent member.
The Centre-Right:
The so-called “European Conservatives” have split from the EPP in 2009 (under Brexit-politician David Cameron). The group is socially conservative and supports neo-liberalism. It also has a Eurosceptic trait based on free trade.
The Radical Right:
Europe’s neofascists are camouflaging themselves under the slogan: “identity & democracy” or I&D. This group includes the Danish People’s Party, the Finnish Party, Germany’s AfD, Italy’s Lega, Belgium’s Vlaams Belang, France’s Rassemblement National, and the Dutch PVV.
Overall, these seven groups can be assembled into roughly three ideological-political groups:
The progressives and environmentalists (nos. 1-3);
The conservatives, reactionaries, and illiberals (nos. 4-6); and finally,
Europe’s neofascists (no. 7).
Finland:
Belonging to group 1, Finland’s progressive hopeful Li Andersson wants to win the second EU seat for her Finnish party. For Finland’s conservative and scandal-ridden prime minister Petteri Orpo‘s National Rally Party (PS) and his coalition partners of the far-right party The Finns—the Christian Democrats and the Swedish People’s Party (SFP)—the prospects for the upcoming EU election are rather mixed. Orpo is slowly but steadily losing support among Fins.
The all too outspoken racism of some of his PS ministers caused an international furore during the summer of 2023—and anti-racist demonstrations were held in dozens of cities in Finland.
Since spring 2024, Finnish trade unions have been fighting back against the austerity policy and the threat of far-reaching labour market restrictions with ever more intensifying waves of strikes. Usually, such attacks on workers and trade unions are sold as “reforms” (read: pro-business re-regulation).
Orpo’s coalition has already cut unemployment and housing benefits. In addition, the government wants to tighten the right to strike, facilitate the dismissal of workers, and plans changing wage regulations and collective bargaining in favour of employers. This will worsen the already existing power asymmetry between labour and capital.
Still, in June’s EU parliament elections, Finland’s right-wing parties could gain in influence. To fight the far right, as many as 300,000 workers, from educators to electricians, were on strike—nationwide—on 1 February 2024.
Ironically, the government’s plans to restrict the right to strike is creating one of the most comprehensive strike waves in recent Finnish history. In other words, the current government has provoked more political strikes than all other governments from 1991 to 2023 combined.
Since mid-March 2024, more than 7,000 employees in ports, logistics companies, steel factories, and oil terminals have stopped working. Imports and exports have already fallen sharply.
Gasoline has become scarce at some petrol stations. Finland’s employers believe that a week of strikes causes company losses of up to €260 million ($267 million).
So far, further work stoppages have been announced. Meanwhile, an agreement with the reactionary government is not in sight as 58% of Finland’s population support industrial disputes.
The harsh and stubborn politics of Finland’s government is increasingly met with public rejection. Only recently, Minister of Economy Wille Rydman (PS)—who enjoys sending racist text messages—has described a union chairman on “X” (twitter) as the “mafia of Hakaniemi“. Around Helsinki’s Hakaniemi Square, numerous headquarters of the most important Finnish trade unions are located.
The discontent over the neoliberal restructuring of the Nordic welfare state will probably also have an impact on the results of the European elections. Meanwhile, Finland has been awarded one more seat during the enlargement of the EU Parliament. Because of this, 15 seats will be up for grabs in the election at the beginning of June.
Orpo’s party could become the strongest force despite the crises and—worse—the far-right “Finns” party could possibly win a place. Meanwhile, two current PS party MEPs have left the far-right “identity & democracy” group (no. 7 above) in the EU Parliament.
They joined the group of European conservatives (nos. 4-6) in a neofascist to conservatism move. The background was the support for Putin among Finland’s neofascists.
According to recent polls, Finland’s “social democrats” (no. 2) could also double its two seats to four. The environmentalist “Greens” (no. 3) are a long way from their top result of 16% five years ago. Climate policy is currently only a marginal issue in Finland.
For the progressive “Left Alliance” (no. 1), a second seat is an achievable, but it remains a rather ambitious goal. Today, the party sits at 9% in public polling. Yet, between 11% to 12% would be necessary for a second seat at EU’s parliament. The leading candidate Li Andersson is set to play a key role in this.
The 36-year-old candidate is popular across party lines. However, her likely entry into the European Parliament means the end as a progressive leader in Finland’s political landscape. On the other hand, Li Andersson’s move to Europe would be a significant gain for European progressives.
The Netherlands
Meanwhile, things look bleak in the Netherlands where the neofascist Geert Wilder’s far-right PVV and his “tulip-fascism” remains the favourite. Yet, the fact that a new European Parliament will be elected soon has hardly registered in the Netherlands. Election posters and TV campaigns can be searched in vain.
Even four months after the Dutch parliamentary elections were held, there is still no new government in the Netherlands as conservatives and neofascists battle with each other.
In mid-March, the election winner –neofascist Geert Wilders—announced, rather suddenly and surprisingly, that he no longer wants to become prime minister which has been his declared goal for a long time. Put simply, he lacks the necessary support for his “so much hoped for” reactionary coalition.
Yet, the mess that he has created did not harm the popularity of the far-right and deeply Islamophobic so-called “Party for Freedom“. According to recent polls, one in four Dutch people could vote for Wilders’ PVV [Partij voor de Vrijheid] which can hope for nine of the 31 Dutch seats in the European Parliament.
It is becoming apparent that Wilders’ far-right party will make advances. With it, right-wing populism could gain even further in influence in Europe’s parliament. On the upswing, Wilder’s right-wing extremists are not “yet” represented in Strasbourg—the location of the EU parliament.
On the downside however, his party is likely to be the big winner of the upcoming election. According to recent polling, Wilders’ PVV is followed by the progressive alliance of Workers’ Party PvdA and Green-Left (GL) with potentially six seats and the Dutch conservatives or VVD (ex-Rutte) with five seats.
Almost all Dutch parties belong to one of the seven aforementioned main European political groups. Thanks to right-wing populism, the nine seats of the neofascist PVV are likely to fall to their euphemistically labelled “Identity & Democracy” platoon—a mixture of right-wing populists, nationalists, and far-right parties.
The progressive GL-PvdA alliance is expected to split its six seats between two European factions based on previous alliances. As in 2019, GL would hand over three seats to the Greens. In addition, the progressive group could receive three seats from Dutch PvdA. As a result, the PvdA faction in Europe is set to shrink.
The conservative European People’s Party (EPP)—currently the largest group in the European parliament—could receive five seats from the Netherlands. Meanwhile, the progressives might win two additional seats: one from the Dutch Animal Welfare Party and one from the Socialist Party.
At the same time, interest in the Netherlands for the European elections remains rather measly. Already in the 2019 election, only 41% of the Dutch people were attracted to the ballot box—below Europe’s 50% average. By contrast, a whopping 77% of Dutch voters participated in the nation’s parliamentary election in November 2023.
Austria
Just as in the Netherlands and elsewhere, support for right-wing populism is up. Unsurprisingly, Austria’s right-wing populists run an election campaign in the style of the boulevard press—the tabloids. Driven by media capitalism, Austria’s political parties focus on emotional issues and sensationalism—spiced up with a right-wing populist-propagandistic orientation.
Like in the Netherlands, European elections are not at the top of the list of priorities for Austria’s parties. Nevertheless, some in Austria’s party headquarters are looking forward to the ballot—while others do so with hesitation.
After all, the election will be a test of the country’s mood. The election may well be an indication of what is emerging in Austria as a whole—a marked shift towards the right-wing FPÖ.
Worse, the FPÖ sees itself on the verge of taking power. By far, the party is leading in polls with around 30%. One of its racist election slogans is, “the government must be a force against migration”. It only gets worse.
Another motto is, “we are no longer putting up with the EU” and finally, “the EU’s warmongering puts us at risk”. This is the kind of right-wing rhetoric with which the far-right FPÖ promotes itself.
On the other hand, there is the traditionally conservative leader of Austria’s petti-bourgeois camp, namely the once traditionalist ÖVP. Today, the party runs with xenophobic catchphrases like, “whoever rejects our way of life must leave” and “tradition instead of multiculturalism”.
Similar to the Netherlands, it is becoming increasingly apparent that Austria’s right-wing parties could make gains.
Under sensationalism, the tabloidization of politics, and right-wing populism, fact-based reasoning is no longer the thing in election campaigns. The EU election has degenerated into a sideshow, which, at best, offers an opportunity to place nationalistic issues over and above the European context.
As the focus shifts towards issues that guarantee a high degree of emotionality, it is interesting to see what is “not” talked about during the election campaign, i.e. Austria’s neutrality, Austria’s role in the EU, and, for example, capitalism and how it is causing high inflation.
Instead of class, capitalism, and labor, nationalistic issues: our land, our soil, our farmers, our security, our white culture dominate.
A substantive argumentation on pressing topics no longer takes place. In Austria, too, there is a dominance of tabloids and tabloid-style politics which is turbo-charged with right-wing propaganda.
Democracy is made worse through a multitude of negative campaigning with a right-wing populist twist. Much is limited to headline-grabbing messages deprived of any serious content.
As for Finland’s, Dutch, and Austrian democracy, this—more often than not—means a slow pathologization—the rendering of something to become pathological, unhealthy, and sick—and an inability to conduct democratic debates. Rousseau’s volonté générale has been manipulated by right-wing populism in cahoots with corporate media.
Much of this occurs on the background of typically Austrian scandals like the infamous Ibiza Affair. Thanks to Austria’s conservative and dominant tabloid media, the scandal did not have a lasting impact on the rise of right-wing populists. That was five years ago.
Today’s scandal surrounds an Austrian spy who had been spying for Russia under the eyes of “conservative” government investigators for almost a decade. There is also a scandal surrounding the Signa bankruptcy which has revealed—the usual—“close links” between politics and business.
Finally, there is a whole plethora of humiliations surrounding ex-Chancellor Sebastian Kurz—a conservative. These run from false statements to media coverage bought with state money.
Recent polls predict that the Kurz’s conservative ÖVP could fall to around 20%—down by 14%. Meanwhile, Austria’s environmental Greens and its social-democratic SPÖ are stagnating. Yet, what makes the current EU election campaign so special and what undermines the credibility of the conservative ÖVP are the following four key issues:
the party’s veto against Romania’s accession to the Schengen area,
severe cuts in migration,
its isolationist tendencies, and, worse,
the pandering to the far-right FPÖ.
Despite the rather nonsensical “horseshoe theory”, what we see is the exact opposite in Finland, the Netherlands, and in Austria. There is no coming together of reactionaries and progressives on the other end of the horseshoe.
Instead, what is set to happen in the upcoming EU parliament elections is the further marginalization of the progressives as reactionaries, the far-right, outright neofascists, and conservatives joining hands to dominate politics in Finland, the Netherlands, and Austria—perhaps even in the EU’s parliament.
Largely set by corporate mass media, many Europeans face a kind of “Coke-vs.-Pepsi” choice between neoliberalism with or without being spiced up by right-wing populism. Increasingly, what Noam Chomsky said about the USA, applies to Europe as well, “The USA is a one-party system—the business party with two factions: Democrats and Republicans.”
In Europe, too, virtually all competing political parties subscribe to the unquestioned master ideology of neo-liberalism whether being progressive, conservative, or outright neofascist. The upcoming EU parliament elections will—once again—reinforce the dominance of neo-liberalism. As American writer Mark Twain once said, “If voting made a difference, they wouldn’t let us do it.” Perhaps even more to the point “If voting changed anything, they’d make it illegal” (Emma Goldman, 1869-1940).