Doval’s Megaphone Diplomacy
This Isn’t the Time To Engage Sullivan in a Conversation
If only National Security Advisor Ajit Doval had deferred by a day his “smart move” on Friday to dial up his White House counterpart Jack Sullivan following the threatening tongue-lashing by the American ambassador to Delhi on the “cynicism” of India’s strategic autonomy!
Twenty-four hours later, lightning struck and American political history dramatically changed course. For anyone who isn’t as blind as a bat, it should have been obvious for sometime already that the United States is rocking uncontrollably and the time to do business with it can wait.
Doval could have taken a leaf out of External Affairs Minister S. Jaishankar’s notebook on the virtues of Buddha-like silence. Buddhists believe that silence is the means to quieting the mind, to acquiring insights and to coming to understand the true nature of things (and of oneself). Mythology says that angels in the heaven were frightened when Buddha got enlightened on that full moon day in the month of May and went on to maintain silence for the whole week—not speaking a word.
Jaishankar simply moved on to a greener pasture, BIMSTEC—Bay of Bengal Initiative for Multi-Sectoral Technical and Economic Cooperation—while Doval dived into the cesspool “to work closely” with Sullivan “to further advance India-US relations which are built on shared values and common strategic and security interests.”
The Indian readout adds, “They also agreed to work together to address global challenges of peace and security and expand the Comprehensive Global and Strategic Partnership.” Doval and Sullivan also spoke about an upcoming Quad meeting at Foreign Minister-level in Tokyo towards the end of this month.
Doval seemed unaware that an impression has crystallised in world capitals that Sullivan’s appearance invariably meant trouble because he lived in time past. Like the falling comet betokened the true end of Merlin’s powers, the mythical wizard in the legend of King Arthur, so Sullivan’s appearance on the horizon brings bad news. This is one thing.
Doval dialled up Sullivan only four days after the Chinese Foreign Minister and special representative on border talks with India Wang Yi reached out to him with an intriguing message that China and India share a relationship that transcends bilateral boundaries and holds increasing global significance. Wang Yi expressed willingness to join hands to “properly handle” the situation on the ground in the border areas.
Doval’s megaphone diplomacy with Sullivan was ill-timed, to say the least. With the BRICS Summit due to take place in Kazan from 22 to 24 October and Modi having conveyed to Putin last week his intention to attend the event in person, what was the tearing hurry to bring into the equation Ambassador Eric Garcetti’s gratuitous, unsolicited remark that Russia wouldn’t help India if the Chinese invade our country? This is the second thing.
Why should we be afraid of engaging the Chinese? Normalisation can lead to more trade and investment and technology transfer from China which will lead to job creation in what is otherwise a dismal scenario. This is the third thing.
Most importantly, someone posted on Twitter X today a quote attributed to Senator J.D. Vance of Ohio, Donald Trump’s newly announced running mate, arguing for a smarter foreign policy for the United States—“The Chinese have a foreign policy of building roads and bridges, and feeding the poor!” Arguably, the senator was only echoing a belief that Trump himself held as a core of the Jeffersonian ideology.
Jefferson felt that the central government should be “rigorously frugal and simple” and as president, he reduced the size and scope of the federal government by ending internal taxes, reducing the size of the army and navy, and paying off the government’s debt. Limiting the federal government flowed from his strict interpretation of the Constitution.
Yet, the prevailing view is that Trump will be “hard” on China. Now, that estimation stems out of Trump’s America First hypothesis and does not necessarily mean that he will follow Biden’s footfalls to stoke tensions in Taiwan Straits or encircle China militarily with the NATO alliance system.
Vance’s above quote suggests that Trump may have a Third Way in store for us. After all, Trump must be a man in a hurry who has only 4 years left with to make his mark on history.
The heart of the matter is that Trump.2 will be radically different, as this time around, he is battle-hardened and far more experienced in working the American political system to advance his agenda. He survived the poisonous cocktail of “Russia collusion” which the Deep State concocted to get him bogged down in a political quagmire till his term ended tamely, preventing him from rolling back America’s imperial overstretch such as cutting down defence budget, closing hundreds of military bases, eschewing wasteful expeditions abroad.
Suffice to say, the upshot of Trump’s miraculous survival from an assassination attempt by a few millimetres on Saturday could well be that if he wins the November 5 election, he will be raring to go to chalk up his presidential legacy from Day One by assembling a team of like-minded aides. Senator Vance heads that list.
It will be a good start for our mandarins in Delhi to buy a copy of Senator Vance’s harrowing memoir, Hillbilly Elegy, to comprehend what’s on Trump’s mind going forward. It is a sensitively written book by an insider, who grew up seeing a society in crisis due to the lack of blue-collar jobs, where, despite fierce family loyalty, the nuclear family structure itself was crumbling amidst the legacies of abuse, alcoholism, poverty and trauma.
The nearest I could compare Hillbilly Elegy in its sheer poignancy is the memoir by the well-known Russia hand and historian Fiona Hill There is Nothing for You Here, drawing on her personal journey out of poverty in the blighted corner of northern England where the local mines had closed in Thatcherite Britain, businesses were stuttering and despair was etched in the faces of a coal miner’s daughter.
Hill went on to study in Moscow and at Harvard and became an American citizen and served three US presidents. Make no mistake, Vance’s attraction too is that he beat the odds to graduate from Yale Law School.
Interestingly, Hill wrote that the example of modern Russia offers “a cautionary tale” for the US. “Russia is America’s Ghost of Christmas Future… The disintegration of the Soviet Union is certainly the spectre of a grim future that could lie ahead for the United States, but it also provides some ideas of how to address our opportunity crisis.”
The point is, Trump’s choice of Vance as his running mate offers some insight not only into his campaign strategy but, possibly, as a BBC commentary put it, “how he would govern if he returns to the White House.”
Hillbilly Elegy tells of Vance’s blue-collar upbringing and how it affected his politics and worldview. Vance aligns closely with Trump’s political ideology holding similar views on trade, immigration and foreign policy. Vance has been particularly critical of continued US support for Ukraine.
Don’t be surprised if Trump dusted up his one-time core belief that the US, Russia and China can work together as a troika.
International politics is entering a grey zone and will remain so for the rest of the year. For countries with high stakes—Russia, China, Ukraine, Israel, Saudi Arabia, or NATO allies—the smart thing will be figuring out what to expect from a Trump presidency. Certainly, this isn’t the time to engage Sullivan in a conversation.